Salamander Forecast

When Will the Amphibians Migrate? Here's Our Best Guess.

Spring amphibian migrations are spurred by a combination of thawed ground, warm nighttime temperatures (above 40°F), and wet weather — though temperature fluctuations and varying snow depth mean that Big Night often occurs at different times in different places. Spring weather in New England is notoriously fickle, so check back often for the most up-to-date forecast!

Monday 3/25

Still Waiting...

No rain = no amphibian migration.

Tuesday 3/26

Still Waiting...

No rain = no amphibian migration.

Wednesday 3/27

Still Waiting...

No rain = no amphibian migration.

Thursday 3/28

Maybe So, Maybe Not

There's a 40% chance of showers on Thursday evening. If they arrive -- and stick around for a while -- we could have our first migration of the year at sites with bare ground.

Friday 3/29

Maybe So, Maybe Not

There's a 30% chance of showers on Friday evening. If they arrive -- and stick around for a while -- we could have our first migration of the year at sites with bare ground.

High Probability: Get out your rain gear and reflective vest!
Maybe So, Maybe Not: Watch the weather; it’s a nail-biter.
Very Unlikely: Too cold, too dry, or too snowy — there’ll be no migration tonight.

March 21, 2019

Current projections have tonight’s rain moving in around midnight, when temperatures will be in the mid-30s, which is too cold for amphibians! Tomorrow’s cold rain and snow may continue after dark, but temperatures will once again be in the 30s. After a full day of rain, it’s possible that a few eager, cold-hardy wood frogs at low-elevation sites with bare ground could make their move tomorrow night, but a large-scale migration is unlikely.

March 20, 2019

We’re still keeping our eye on Thursday night, but the forecast is shifting. Timing and temperature will be key. If the rain gets going by late afternoon or early evening, when temperatures are still lingering in the low 40s, we could see our first migration of the year at low-elevation sites with bare ground − such as North Lincoln Street and Eastern Avenue in Keene. If the rain doesn’t come through until later, when temperatures have already dipped below the 40° threshold, the amphibians will likely wait for a warmer night. Stay tuned!

March 18, 2019

There’s a 50% chance of 42° rain on Thursday at sundown, which could make for an early migration — at least until temperatures dip below 40° later in the evening. However, a 50% chance isn’t much to hang your hat on and most of the Monadnock Region is still blanketed in snow, which is not so frog-friendly. If the rain comes through as predicted, we could see our first migration of the year on Thursday, but only at low-elevation sites with bare ground − such as North Lincoln Street and Eastern Avenue in Keene − and only if the ground near those sites thaws sufficiently. Stay tuned!

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